Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Then There Were Three

No big developments at tonight’s mayoral debate.  Only Richard Skorman got a laugh. I think the problem was that the event started at about 5:45, thirty minutes late because of a power outage.  It also took place over the dinner hour when almost all of the 450 people in the audience were experiencing falling blood sugar levels.

In nearly all of the city elections I have followed over the past thirty years, the campaign has remained open, unsettled until about two weeks prior to the election.  It hangs like a supersaturated liquid, until some event, perhaps unnoticed, touches the glass beaker and then the election crystallizes.  I think this election is still in flux, but some things are rapidly becoming clearer.  The contenders are now down to three:  Skorman, Bahr and Bach.  Of the three, Bach is hanging on for dear life.  I just do not see much of an ability in Bach to connect with the voter.  He may have some endorsements, but they are from people he has known for a long time.  I suspect that many of the endorsements are more the product of these life-long relationships than any other reason.  Skorman and Bahr have that ability to connect, which is why I expect them to lead the ballot by a significant margin over the remaining seven. 

I still think there are too many candidates for one to get a majority on the April ballot.  Thus, the question becomes who can grab that magical majority from the middle. 

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